Flat Headline, Loud Spin: October Retail Sales Are “Virtually Unchanged” While Revisions Bite

The official release dated 2025-12-16 leads with “virtually unchanged” October retail sales. That’s accurate—headline sales printed $732.6B, +0.0% m/m with a ±0.5% confidence interval that includes zero. Yet the narrative spotlights +3.5% y/y for total sales, +3.4% y/y for retail trade, +9.0% y/y for nonstore retailers, and +4.1% y/y for food services. The month-to-month numbers? Statistically indistinguishable from zero—complete with Census asterisks. Momentum also weakens on revision: August–September is now +0.1% (from +0.2%), still not statistically significant.

Here’s what the data reveals:

• Headline October: $732.6B, +0.0% m/m; September revised to $732.4B, +0.1% m/m—both within noise.

• The “control” measure (total excluding motor vehicles & parts and gasoline stations) rose to $543,128M in October from $540,240M—a nominal +0.53% m/m.

• Category crosscurrents: autos (-1.6% m/m), gasoline stations (-0.8%), and restaurants (-0.4%) fell; nonstore retail rose +1.8%.

• The press release plays up y/y gains but repeats: figures are “not for price changes.” Nominal strength ≠ real demand.

A zero masked as momentum

October’s headline is the kind of zero that usually gets buried. The release notes +0.0% m/m for total sales, and +0.1% m/m for retail trade—yet both carry the Census caveat that their 90% confidence intervals include zero. The prior month was marked down to +0.1% from +0.2%. In short, the signal for month-to-month growth is weak, and the revision trend is not your friend.

The year-over-year framing (+3.5% total, +3.4% retail trade) looks decent until you recall that these are nominal. The release explicitly states they’re not adjusted for price changes, leaving real demand as an open question. If prices did the lifting, volumes may be flat—or worse.

Core vs headline: strength, but only on paper

The “control” group—total sales excluding motor vehicles & parts and gasoline stations—ticked up from $540,240M to $543,128M. That’s +0.53% m/m in nominal terms, while the headline stood still ($732.6B vs $732.4B). This split invites an “underlying strength” narrative, but it’s built on advance estimates with limited sample coverage and concurrent seasonal adjustment. Translation: revision risk is high.

Category Crosscurrents the Headline Can’t Hide

The flat headline belies a clear pattern: cyclical categories softened, while e-commerce kept humming.

• Motor vehicle & parts dealers: $137,230M (Oct) vs $139,489M (Sep) → -1.6% m/m

• Gasoline stations: $52,275M vs $52,715M → -0.8% m/m

• Food services & drinking places: $99,401M vs $99,780M → -0.4% m/m

• Nonstore retailers: $131,110M vs $128,788M → +1.8% m/m

The reliance on +9.0% y/y nonstore growth to support the broader narrative runs into two problems: 1) the monthly total is flat, and 2) autos, gasoline, and restaurants slipped on the month. If you’re leaning on e-commerce for the growth story while brick-and-mortar cyclical categories wobble, that’s not “broad-based” strength.

The Revision Churn and the Moving Target

August was trumpeted in the 2025-09-16 release as +0.6% m/m (±0.4%) and +5.0% y/y. Fast forward to 2025-12-16: the August–October three-month y/y framing eases to +4.2%, and September’s m/m is trimmed to +0.1%—again, statistically indistinguishable from zero. Narrative drift from “solid monthly gain” to “virtually unchanged” tells you momentum stalled and the sampling noise got louder.

Complicating matters, the survey now covers only businesses with paid employees (since April 2025). Prior estimates included nonemployers. That structural break muddies historical comparisons—especially any y/y comparisons that bridge the change. Add in concurrent seasonal adjustment, a ~4,800-firm sample, limited imputation, and suppressed sub-series due to high variability, and you have a dataset that will keep moving.

Nominal Illusions and Real Questions

The report emphasizes that all figures are not for price changes. With gasoline prices off and restaurant prices sticky, a flat nominal headline could mask real compositional shifts. Gas station receipts down -0.8% likely reflect price effects as much as volumes. Autos down -1.6% are tougher to explain away with price alone. Food services down -0.4%—modest, but when nominal slips at restaurants, real often slips more.

Meanwhile, the control group’s +0.53% nominal rise helps the bullish case if (and only if) deflators cooperate. But October’s CPI for goods and services will do the heavy lifting in translating these nominal moves into real consumption; without that, “underlying strength” is just a story.

Quick Read of the Tape

Note: All figures nominal; several m/m changes flagged by Census as statistically not different from zero.

Data You Can’t Compare (Yet): Methodology Matters

• Nominal-only: No price adjustment. Real demand requires deflators.

• Statistical significance: Headline and retail trade m/m changes carry asterisks; insufficient evidence of a true change.

• Revisions: Aug–Sep down to +0.1%; concurrent seasonal adjustment means factors update monthly.

• Sample and nonresponse: ~4,800 firms, link-relative estimator, limited imputation, suppressed details (“(S)”/“(*)”) in high-variability cells.

• Structural break: Employer-only coverage since April 2025 complicates y/y comparisons across the boundary.

• Calendar disruption: “Next release: To be determined” due to a funding lapse—expect noisier seasonals and slower clarity.

What This Means for Markets

• Rates and duration: A flat nominal headline with weak month-to-month signal is not an inflation scare. If anything, it supports a lower real-growth narrative into Q4. That keeps a modest bullish bias to duration intact, particularly if deflators suggest soft real goods demand.

• Consumer equities: The crosscurrent is unmistakable—e-commerce (+1.8% m/m) outperforms, while autos (-1.6%) and restaurants (-0.4%) fade. Tilt within consumer discretionary toward platforms and logistics beneficiaries; fade pure-play autos and restaurant chains with high labor and rent leverage.

• Energy retail: Gas station receipts (-0.8%) likely reflect lower prices, a negative for downstream retail margins but a mild positive for household real purchasing power if sustained.

• Macro growth tracking: The control measure’s +0.53% nominal rise is constructive, but the GDP-relevant retail “control” (a different ex-category set) and PCE deflators will decide the real print. Revisions could erase today’s optimism.

The Investor Takeaway

• Positioning:

• Risk management:

• What to watch next:

The headline says “virtually unchanged.” The numbers say e-commerce is carrying water while autos, gas, and restaurants slip—and the month-to-month “gains” are mostly within statistical noise. For investors, the edge is in ignoring the spin and aligning with the parts of retail that are still compounding in real terms.