Claims Fall to 198,000—But Raw Filings Jump 10.7%: The January 15, 2026 Release Tells Two Stories

On January 15, 2026, the official jobless-claims release declared strength: seasonally adjusted (SA) initial claims fell to 198,000, and the 4-week average slid to 205,000, the lowest since January 20, 2024. But the unadjusted (NSA) numbers tell a different story: initial claims actually rose 31,984 (+10.7%) to 330,684, and NSA insured unemployment increased 126,265 (+5.8%) to 2,309,425. The headline is powered by seasonal adjustment; the real economy looks more mixed.

Here’s what the release shows—and what it downplays:

• Seasonally adjusted initial claims fell by 9,000 to 198,000 (week ending January 10), while NSA initial claims rose 31,984 to 330,684. Seasonal factors anticipated a bigger increase (+45,652 or +15.3%) than occurred.

• SA insured unemployment fell by 19,000 to 1,884,000 (week ending January 3), but NSA insured unemployment rose 126,265 to 2,309,425; the NSA insured unemployment rate rose to 1.5% (+0.1).

• The SA 4-week average of initial claims dipped to 205,000—“lowest since January 20, 2024”—even as NSA measures deteriorated.

• Total continued weeks claimed for all programs increased 313,297 to 2,218,506 (week ending December 27), essentially flat versus the comparable week in 2024 (2,218,506 vs 2,213,451).

• Downward revisions flattered the headline: prior SA initial claims were revised -1,000, insured unemployment -11,000, and the 4‑week averages -250 (initial) and -3,250 (insured).

• State stress pockets (NSA): highest insured unemployment rates include New Jersey 2.9, Rhode Island 2.9, Washington 2.8, Massachusetts 2.6, Illinois 2.2. Large week-ago increases in initial claims: New York +15,317, Georgia +5,705, Texas +5,323, California +4,300, Oregon +2,737; latest week shows California +5,471, Texas +7,902, Tennessee +3,522, Massachusetts +3,089, Michigan +3,872, Virginia +2,252 (offsets: Washington -2,955, Oregon -2,821).

• Methodology caveat: advance state claims are not directly comparable week to week due to liability reporting and workshare adjustments.

SA Strength vs NSA Softening: The Split Screen

The country sees a sub‑200k SA print and breathes easy. The raw filings say: not so fast. NSA initial claims rose 10.7% week‑over‑week, yet seasonal factors were braced for a 15.3% climb after the holidays. The lighter‑than‑usual seasonal pop mathematically converts into a stronger SA headline.

The dissonance extends to continuing claims. SA insured unemployment fell 19,000 to 1.884 million. But the NSA counterpart rose 126,265 to 2.309 million, pushing the NSA insured unemployment rate up to 1.5% from 1.4%. That uptick is not the stuff of persistent labor tightness.

Side‑by‑Side Snapshot

The headline hinges on seasonal mechanics. The underlying NSA signal is softer.

“Lowest Since” Framing vs Broad Program Usage

“Lowest since January 20, 2024” is a good headline. But breadth matters. Total continued weeks claimed for all programs rose 313,297 to 2,218,506 and is basically unchanged vs the comparable week in 2024 (+5,055 year-over-year). If labor markets were unambiguously tighter, broad program usage would be trending decisively lower, not oscillating around last year’s levels.

The monthly arc reinforces the volatility: SA initial claims swung from 192,000 (Nov 29, 2025) to 237,000 (Dec 6), then 224,000, 215,000, 200,000, 207,000, and now 198,000. That’s improvement, yes—but with enough chop to question a smooth glide path.

Revisions: The Quiet Narrative Tailwind

Revisions all leaned in one direction: stronger. Initial claims -1,000, insured unemployment -11,000, 4‑week averages -250 and -3,250. One week’s tweak is noise; a pattern of downward revisions is signal—especially when the report itself warns that “advance claims are not directly comparable.” Investors should discount the “lowest since” superlatives when the calculation is still moving.

Continuing Claims: Stress Under the Floorboards

SA continuing claims drifted down to 1.884 million. NSA continuing claims rose 5.8% to 2.309 million, and the NSA insured unemployment rate ticked up to 1.5%. Meanwhile, the “all programs” figure climbed +313,297 in the last reported week of December. Those aren’t recessionary readings, but they are inconsistent with a front-page story of re-accelerating labor tightness.

Think of this as a distributional shift: the average still looks fine, but the tails are getting fatter—more workers touching benefits, more states showing friction.

States Tell the Story the National Average Won’t

Labor markets are local before they’re national. High insured unemployment rates (NSA) in New Jersey 2.9, Rhode Island 2.9, Washington 2.8, Massachusetts 2.6, and Illinois 2.2 point to regional drag. Weekly surges in initial claims clustered in heavyweight states: New York, Georgia, Texas, California, Oregon one week; California, Texas, Tennessee, Massachusetts, Michigan, Virginia the next. This is how softness starts—sectoral or regional—before it shows up in the national aggregates.

What This Means for Markets

• Rates: The SA headline tilts hawkish at the margin, but NSA softening and rising total program usage argue for a cautious Fed. The balance of risks favors a steadier path rather than aggressive tightening talk. Front-end yields may stay range‑bound; the belly can catch a bid on any macro wobble.

• Credit: Investment grade should remain resilient, but pockets of weakness argue for tighter screens in consumer‑exposed high yield (retail, discretionary, temp staffing, and transport) where rising continuing claims bite first.

• Equities: Labor “resilience” headlines support broad indices, but dispersion trades make more sense. Underweight companies with outsized exposure to the high‑IUR states and to sectors sensitive to hiring cycles. Favor quality balance sheets and pricing power.

• Municipal bonds: Monitor spreads for issuers in states flashing elevated insured unemployment—New Jersey, Rhode Island, Washington, Massachusetts, Illinois. Credit differentiation likely widens if NSA softness persists.

• FX and commodities: No clear policy pivot implied. Dollar stable-to-firm if the SA narrative dominates; downside risk if upcoming prints confirm the NSA softening.

Positioning Ideas

• Duration: Maintain a modest long in the 5–10 year sector as a hedge against downside growth surprises implied by rising NSA continuing claims.

• Credit selection: Upgrade within HY cyclicals; rotate toward BBs in consumer and transport; avoid issuers with heavy revenue exposure to the high‑IUR states.

• Equities: Barbell quality defensives with selective cyclicals leveraged to regions showing fewer NSA pressures. Avoid overreacting to “lowest since” headlines until broad program usage turns decisively lower.

• Macro watchlist: Track the spread between SA and NSA claims, the NSA insured unemployment rate (watch 1.5% for follow‑through), state‑level spikes in California/Texas/New York, and whether total continued weeks claimed retreat from ~2.22 million.

The Investor Takeaway

The January 15, 2026 report offers a tale of two labor markets: a seasonally adjusted picture that looks pristine and a raw-data view that’s fraying at the edges. Respect the SA trend—claims near 200,000 are historically strong—but don’t ignore the rising NSA continuing claims, the 1.5% NSA insured unemployment rate, and the +313,297 jump in total program usage. This is not a pivot moment; it’s a dispersion moment. Position for stability at the index level, but price in soft spots beneath the surface. In this tape, the edge belongs to investors who trade the cracks, not the headline.